For the fourth annual Center for Economic Development and Business Research S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, Wichita-area business professionals provided predictions on the value of the S&P 500 stock market index on Sept. 1, 2021.
The challenge respondents predicted,on average that the index would grow to 3,640 index points by Sept. 1. This would represent an increase of 114 index points as compared to its closing value one year prior on Sept. 1, 2020, which would be a and increase of 3.2%.
A majority of respondents predicted an increase in the market, with the median prediction forecasting growth of 7.8%. The bullish predictions on average forecasted an increase of 331 points, while the minority of bearish predictions forecasted a decline of 426 points on average. All of the predictions made ranged between a decline of 16% and an increase of 13%, a wide range of possible outcomes for 2021.
The consensus forecast from major national banks, such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, was more bullish than Wichita’s forecasters, with Goldman Sachs projecting growth of 11% and JP Morgan projecting growth of 15% in 2021.
The S&P 500 index closed at 3,526 on Sept. 1, 2020, an increase of 20.5% compared to one year prior. During the past five years, the index averaged annual growth of 12.1%, increasing more than 1,500 points from a base of 1,989 points in September 2015.
Read the full results and graphs of the 2021 Stock Market Prediction Contest at the CEDBR website.
A graph and table are available at the above link.
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