Professor: William Miles
Dr. William Miles, Department of Economics, recently completed a unique research project related to home prices and global imbalances.
He was the first to use endogenous break methods to explicitly test for whether the
introduction of the euro has changed home value co-movement. The research also employed
informal correlation analysis. Endogenous break results indicate no sustainable increase
in co-movement attributable to the euro, while correlation analysis is suggestive
of a decrease in synchronization since the currency’s introduction. These results contradict previous
claims on the impact of the common currency on house price synchronization.
Dr. Miles proposed a new approach to take account of the interactions between the
current account and home prices. Nine countries-Australia, Germany, Ireland, Japan,
The Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, the UK and the US were examined. Some of these
were “bubble” countries with current account deficits, while others such as Germany,
Japan, The Netherlands and Switzerland ran trade surpluses and had more stable home
values. After performing some largely descriptive exercises (correlation coefficients,
Granger Causality tests) between the trade account and home values for these countries,
he was able to find an “impact” of each variable on the other. The results presented
here clearly indicate that that the trade balance has a palpable impact on home values,
independent of any reverse effect of home values on the current account. This is important,
as the interaction of external imbalances and home prices is an issue with importance
beyond the real estate industry.
The complete research article will be published in an upcoming issue of KYKLOS. For
more information about this article, you can email Dr. William Miles at william.miles@wichita.edu.